The Price of Doubt: Why €187 Billion Is Needed for the Dutch AI Foundation

Wennink, commissioned to translate the European Draghi report into a Dutch context, argues that annual economic growth of 1.5 to 2.0 percent is necessary to keep the welfare state intact. With current forecasts from CPB and DNB projecting only 0.5 to 0.9 percent growth, the threat is real: without action, the government will be missing out on well over a hundred billion euros per year by 2035, or will have to make deep spending cuts. The senior adviser's conclusion is clear: it is invest now or fall behind.

The Sovereign Choice: AI as a Necessity

The roadmap Wennink outlines is not a broad wish list, but a focus on four strategic domains where the Netherlands can excel. Digitalisation and AI sits firmly at the top, closely intertwined with the other pillars: security, biotechnology and energy technology.

The investment requirement is enormous. To achieve the necessary minimum growth of 1.5 percent, the Netherlands must mobilise as much as €151 to €187 billion in additional productivity-enhancing investments by 2035. This is not solely a matter of public funding; the majority of this potential must come from the private sector.

This focus on AI and digitalisation is an acknowledgement of a new market dynamic: it is the foundation underpinning everything. Contrary to the general assumption that AI is merely software, the report emphasises the physical, intertwined nature of the technology. AI, photonics and semiconductors are explicitly named as the accelerators that enable innovation across virtually all sectors. The bet is that Dutch expertise in chips (semiconductors) and light technology (photonics) must be deployed to fuel the AI transition and thereby safeguard prosperity.

Beyond the Chatbot: The Photonic Foundation

The report raises a strategic nuance that the deep-tech sector has been pointing to for some time: AI is not a magical service, but an infrastructure. It requires massive computing power and a robust digital foundation. The Dutch digital economy is already showing cracks in the third quarter of 2025. Growth in essential data traffic through AMS-IX and the expansion of colocation capacity are lagging behind international competition and rising demand.

The appeals from the deep-tech sector, such as those from AI entrepreneur Jelle Prins, resonate in Wennink's blunt conclusions about the business climate. Prins, who with his company Cradle AI focuses on designing proteins, previously warned that the environment for scaling deep technology in the Netherlands is structurally more challenging than in competing countries [Prins, Jelle. MT/Sprout. Waarom Nederland dringend een AI-Deltaplan nodig heeft (2025)]. Wennink formalises this critique by asserting that there is a direct link between low productivity growth and fragmentation and uncertainty in governance.

From Delta Works to Regional AI Hubs

Wennink's report is not an abstract theoretical document; it inventoried 51 concrete propositions with a total investment potential of €126 billion, drawn from more than a thousand experts. A key component of the plan is anchoring AI ambitions regionally, ensuring that technology is applied and developed not only in the Randstad, but across the entire country.

In concrete terms, the AI strategy focuses on large-scale, regional 'moonshots' at the intersection of the four strategic domains:

The Gap Between the Report and the Preconditions

The greatest paradox is the gap between the ambitions and the preconditions. Wennink argues that the plans are feasible and affordable, but that the absence of the right preconditions is the biggest barrier to the necessary growth. The Netherlands is like a 'car with four flat tyres'.

It is the task of policymakers to address these obstacles, from slow permitting to the talent shortage and problems with the electricity grid, with direction, speed and consistency. Wennink is optimistic about the Netherlands' capabilities, but his advice is an unmistakable warning: prosperity is not built by waiting, but by investing and acting.

The choices now on the table will determine the nature of the Netherlands in 2035. If policymakers have the resolve to make clear, strategic decisions and facilitate the multi-billion investment in AI and technology, the erosion of prosperity can be halted. If they do not, the country will lose not only economic opportunities, but also its strategic relevance and the ability to fund its public services. The future, Wennink argues, will not wait.