The Price of Doubt: Why 187 Billion Euros is Needed for the Dutch AI Foundation

Wennink, hired to translate the European Draghi report into the Dutch context, states that an annual economic growth of 1.5 to 2.0 percent is necessary to sustain the welfare state. With current forecasts from the CPB and DNB showing only 0.5 to 0.9 percent growth, the threat is real: without action, the government will miss out on over a hundred billion euros annually by 2035, or significant budget cuts will be required. According to the top advisor, the solution is clear: it is now invest or fall behind.

The Sovereign Choice: AI as a Necessity

The roadmap outlined by Wennink is not a broad list of wishes but a focus on four strategic domains where the Netherlands can excel. Digitization and AI stand proudly at the top, closely intertwined with the other pillars: safety, biotechnology, and energy technology.

The investment challenge is astronomical. To achieve the necessary growth of at least 1.5 percent, the Netherlands must mobilize an additional €151 to €187 billion in productivity-enhancing investments by 2035. This is not just about government funds; the majority of this potential must come from the private sector.

This focus on AI and digitization is a recognition of a new market dynamic: it is the foundation of everything. Contrary to the general assumption that AI concerns only software, the report emphasizes the physical, interconnected nature of this technology. AI, photonics, and semiconductors are explicitly mentioned as accelerators enabling innovations in virtually all sectors. The bet is that Dutch expertise in chips (semiconductors) and light technology (photonics) must be leveraged to fuel the AI transition and thus secure prosperity.

Beyond the Chatbot: The Photonic Foundation

The report addresses a strategic nuance long identified by the deep-tech sector: AI is not a magical service, but an infrastructure. It requires massive computing power and a robust digital foundation. The Dutch digital economy is already showing cracks in the third quarter of 2025. The growth of essential data traffic via the AMS-IX and the expansion of colocation capacity are lagging behind international competition and growing demand.

The pleas of the deep-tech sector, such as those from AI entrepreneur Jelle Prins, resonate in Wennink's stark conclusions about the business climate. Prins, who with his company Cradle AI focuses on protein design, has previously warned that the climate for upscaling deep technology in the Netherlands is structurally 'heavier' than in competing countries [Prins, Jelle. MT/Sprout. Why the Netherlands urgently needs an AI Delta Plan (2025)]. Wennink formalizes this criticism by stating that there is a direct link between low productivity growth and fragmentation and uncertainty in governance.

From Delta Works to Regional AI Hubs

Wennink's report is not an abstract theoretical piece; it inventoried 51 concrete propositions with a total investment potential of €126 billion, from over a thousand experts. An essential part of the plan is the regional embedding of AI ambitions, with technology not only to be applied and developed in the Randstad but throughout the country.

Concretely, the AI strategy focuses on large-scale, regional 'moonshots' at the intersection of the four strategic domains:

The Gap Between Report and Prerequisites

The biggest paradox is the gap between ambitions and prerequisites. Wennink states that the plans are achievable and affordable, but the absence of the right prerequisites constitutes the greatest obstacle to the necessary growth. The Netherlands is like a ‘car with four flat tires’.

It is the task of politics to address these barriers – from slow permit issuance to the talent shortage and grid problems – with direction, speed, and consistency. Wennink is hopeful about the capabilities of the Netherlands, but his advice is an unmistakable warning: prosperity is not built by waiting but by investing and taking action.

The choices now before us will determine the nature of the Netherlands in 2035. If politics has the courage to make sharp, strategic choices and facilitate billion-dollar investments in AI and technology, the erosion of prosperity can be halted. If not, we will not only lose economic opportunities but also our strategic relevance and the ability to fund our public services. The future, as Wennink states, waits for no one.

Willem Blom
Founder Dutchstartup.AI