Five Billion Against the Clock & Why the Netherlands Must Choose Now

"AI is an indispensable system technology with an impact on all aspects of society. Although this is recognized in the Netherlands, there is too little concrete action and insufficient investment to truly engage with AI." — Willem Jonker, Chairman AIC4NL [2]

The diagnosis

The position paper opens with a sobering comparison. The Netherlands invests €250 per resident in AI for the period 2026-2030. Scandinavia aims for €551, Germany €858, the United Kingdom €858, and France €1,385 [1]. The backlog is not new, but the consequences are now visible. The Netherlands ranks 20th on the Global AI Index, scoring only 10 to 11 out of 100 for research, development, and commercialization [1]. Only in infrastructure does the country score reasonably: 40 out of 100.

The causes are structural. Europe has focused too long on regulation without investing in its own capacity. The AI Act and Data Act exist, but the companies that need to comply come from Silicon Valley and Shenzhen. The result is what AIC4NL calls 'technological captivity': dependence on foreign platforms for a technology that penetrates the economy's and society's fibers.

The solution in three pillars

AIC4NL presents an investment agenda along three lines. The first pillar involves infrastructure: €1 billion for a Dutch AI factory and sovereign cloud capacity. The AI factory in Groningen, which started in October 2025 with €200 million, is just the beginning. The coalition points to the 20-80 ratio in successful AI services: for every euro in training, four euros are needed for actual use [1]. Thus, after development investment, €800 million more must follow for deployment infrastructure.

The second pillar focuses on building a Dutch 'AI Fair Tech' industry: €1.5 billion. This includes an investment fund of €1 billion for scaling up AI startups, €250 million for data collections, and €250 million for talent. The concept of 'Fair Tech' refers to AI that meets European values: transparent algorithms, fair data processing, respect for privacy and copyright.

The third and largest pillar concerns 'AI Grand Challenges' in strategic sectors: €2.5 billion. AIC4NL identifies four domains where AI can have the greatest societal impact: healthcare, energy and climate, defense and security, and agrifood. For each domain, the coalition allocates €500 million, plus €500 million for retraining and reskilling of workers.

Of the total €5 billion, 80% must come from private parties, 20% from the government. It is a deliberate choice: the government as an instigator, the business sector as a carrier.

The foundation: the AI Delta Plan

The AIC4NL position paper builds on the National AI Delta Plan that Jelle Prins and Michiel Bakker presented earlier in November [3][4]. Where AIC4NL outlines the financial framework, the Delta Plan laid the strategic foundation. The plan contains over fifty concrete recommendations, developed in collaboration with over sixty experts from academia, business, and government.

The comparison to the Delta Works is no coincidence. Just as the storm surge barriers protected the Netherlands from water, an AI Delta Plan must protect the country from digital vulnerability. The initiators warn of an existential threat. Five years ago, the Netherlands was at the forefront of AI. Google Brain opened an office in Amsterdam, ASML grew into a key player in chip technology. Today, Dutch companies primarily use American AI models while top talent departs for San Francisco.

The Delta Plan identifies five strategic opportunities where the Netherlands can still excel: vertical AI applications in sectors like healthcare and agriculture, human-machine interfaces, data platforms for securely sharing data, scientific AI for breakthroughs in research, and energy-efficient AI hardware [4]. The most ambitious recommendation is NADI: a Dutch research center for 'impossible breakthroughs', inspired by the American DARPA which spawned GPS, stealth aircraft, and the internet.

Prins, co-founder of AI company Cradle, summarizes the urgency: "If we do nothing, we will lose our competitive position. Then all our companies will use American AI models until Trump suddenly says we can no longer use them." This is not a hypothetical scenario. Geopolitical tensions make technological sovereignty of strategic importance.

The funding gaps

The AI Deep Dive report by Invest-NL and regional development agencies, written by AI expert Stefan Leijnen, highlights the funding gaps that stand in the way of the ambitions of both AIC4NL and the Delta Plan [5][6]. The Netherlands has 96 AI-native startups in the ROM portfolio. The average investment per round has risen to nearly €400,000. But that amount is a fraction of what is needed.

The gaps are structural. ROMs invest an average of €400,000, Invest-NL only starts at €10 million. Between them lies a 'valley of death' where promising companies strand. In the early stage, capital is lacking for teams aiming to train large models. In the scale-up phase, there is no breakthrough capital of €100 million or more. The Leijnen report identifies three critical funding gaps: the early capital-intensive phase, the scale-up and breakthrough capital, and the rapid seed and Series A financing crucial in AI due to market speed.

An interesting fact: only 2% of Dutch AI startups focus on hardware and energy, but this category attracts 18% of invested capital [6]. The market sees opportunities in the Dutch position around semiconductors. But reality is unruly. ASML invested €1.3 billion in the French Mistral, not in a Dutch AI champion [7]. The capital is there, the companies to invest in still need to grow.

The broader context: welfare at stake

Peter Wennink, former CEO of ASML, places the AI investment agenda in a broader perspective [8][9]. In his report on the path to future welfare, he calculates that the Netherlands must mobilize €151 to €187 billion in productivity-enhancing investments by 2035 to maintain the welfare state. AI is not an aside, but a prerequisite.

Most of it must come from private parties. But they prefer to invest elsewhere: Dutch pension funds invest three times as much in American as in European companies [10]. Wennink uses a striking metaphor: The Netherlands is a car with four flat tires. The engine runs, but the conditions are missing. Talent scarcity, slow permits, network congestion, nitrogen problems. A company in the Brainport region that must wait until 2033 for a power connection is not hindered by the market, but by policy.

The energy price exacerbates the problem: The Netherlands pays €95 per MWh, France €32 [6]. For AI companies dependent on computing power, this poses a structural competitive disadvantage that no investment agenda can compensate for.

The way forward

The four reports together form a coherent picture. The AI Delta Plan outlines the strategic direction and the urgency. The Leijnen report from Invest-NL and the ROMs exposes the funding gaps blocking the growth of startups to scale-ups. The Wennink report places everything in the context of national welfare and names the prerequisites that must first be met. And the AIC4NL position paper translates this into a concrete investment agenda with price tags and an execution structure.

The consensus is clear: do not compete with the US and China on the largest language models, but invest in vertical applications and sectors where the Netherlands has traditionally been strong. Healthcare, agrifood, logistics, high-tech, defense. AIC4NL advocates for a 'Dutch AI Pact' where government, businesses, knowledge institutions, and social organizations coordinate their investments. A national AI summit should initiate the process.

The coalition warns against fragmentation: The Netherlands abounds in small initiatives with little impact. Only bundled efforts create the critical mass needed.

What does this mean for startups?

For the 96 AI-native startups in the ROM portfolio and the dozens of others outside it, the €5 billion agenda is more than a policy document. It is a potential lifeline. The valley of death between €1 million and €10 million where promising companies currently strand could be bridged with the proposed investment fund of €1 billion. The €250 million for data collections provides access to training data that individual startups could never gather themselves. And the €500 million for talent per sector makes it easier to compete with Big Tech salaries.

More concretely: a Dutch AI startup in the healthcare sector could benefit from both the sectoral data collection and the €500 million Grand Challenge for healthcare. A hardware startup around energy-efficient chips finds alignment with the infrastructure pillar and the Dutch position in the semiconductor industry. The agenda not only creates capital but also a sales market: the government as the launching customer for AI Fair Tech solutions.

But there is a downside. The 80-20 split means that €4 billion must come from private parties. The same business sector that now invests three times as much in American as in European companies. AIC4NL's agenda is ambitious, but its implementation depends on willingness that is not yet there. Dutch pension funds and corporates need to be convinced that investing in local AI startups is not only socially desirable but also profitable.

The next five years are crucial, concludes AIC4NL. For startups, this means a double task: growing in an ecosystem that is still under construction, and simultaneously helping to shape that ecosystem. The 96 companies in the ROM portfolio are the foundation. The challenge is to make hidden champions visible winners that prove Dutch AI Fair Tech can compete.

Invest now to become a player. Delay to remain a captive. For the Netherlands as a country, but also for every startup trying to grow without the capital and infrastructure available to competitors in the US and China.

Max Pinas

Founder http://dutchstartup.ai